A recent study by consultancy group Bain & Company underscores the transformative potential of chemical recycling in reshaping the plastics industry. Despite its current limitations, the sector is viewed as a key driver for reducing plastic waste and lessening dependence on virgin materials—if adequate investment and policy backing are secured.
Table of Contents
A Newcomer Industry Held Back by Cost Barriers
The research highlights that chemical recycling, particularly in Europe, remains in its early stages. One of the primary barriers is the economic advantage held by virgin plastic production. Currently, recycled materials—such as polyolefins—can cost up to twice as much as their virgin counterparts. This significant price gap makes it difficult for recycled alternatives to compete, especially in markets where buyers are highly price-sensitive.
The study stresses that without external intervention, market forces alone are unlikely to close this cost gap. Limited supply and high production costs hinder the ability to generate economies of scale, making recycled plastic a less attractive option for manufacturers.
The Case for Massive Investment
According to the findings, a global investment of € 400 billion in chemical recycling infrastructure and innovation could change this outlook. Such a commitment would not only reduce the long-term cost of recycled plastics but could also lead to cost parity with virgin materials within two to three decades. This shift would significantly boost the viability and attractiveness of recycled content in the global plastics supply chain.
In the long term, this level of investment could enable chemical recycling to meet up to one-third of global plastics demand. Achieving this would require both technological advancement and a substantial expansion of recycling capacity.
Policy Support as a Key Enabler
It is also emphasized that financial investment alone will not be enough. It calls for stronger policy measures to help scale the industry. Just as policy has supported the growth of sustainable fuels in the energy sector, similar regulatory mechanisms could incentivize recycled plastics production and use.
Potential strategies include national or regional mandates that gradually increase the required percentage of recycled content in plastic products. Such targets could stimulate demand, giving manufacturers a clearer roadmap for transitioning to recycled inputs.
By 2040, the study suggests that chemical recycling could fulfill at least 15 % of plastics demand if supported by effective regulatory frameworks and strategic planning.
Technology and Experience Driving Down Costs
The research also notes that early-stage progress is already visible. Advances in recycling technology and pre-treatment processes are beginning to improve the efficiency of chemical recycling. As more facilities are built and operational experience grows, the sector is expected to benefit from lower processing costs and improved material output.
This evolution mirrors the development patterns seen in other sustainability-focused industries, where upfront investments have led to long-term cost reductions and broader adoption.
Conclusion
While chemical recycling has the potential to become a major pillar of global plastics sustainability, realizing that potential will depend on two critical levers—massive, long-term investment and coordinated policy action. With the right support, chemical recycling could not only reduce waste but also reshape the economics of the plastics industry, helping meet rising demand with lower environmental impact.
