A recent industry whitepaper by ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services), projects that global mechanical recycling could reach over 50 million tonnes annually by 2050. This marks a doubling of current recycling rates in regions such as Europe, North America, and North Asia, where mechanical recycling made up just 8% of demand in 2024. The analysis offers a detailed breakdown of recycling trends by polymer type, regional challenges, and expected growth trajectories.
Table of Contents
Europe’s Steady Climb in PET and Polyester Recycling
In Europe, recycling of PET resin and polyester fibre is progressing, albeit at different rates. PET resin currently accounts for 21 % of the total mechanical recycling, with projections indicating a rise to 45 % by 2050. Polyester fibre, on the other hand, falls behind—and is expected to grow modestly, from 16 % to 22%. The slower pace is tied to technological hurdles in fibre recycling, despite increasing pressure from environmental goals and corporate sustainability efforts.
Rigid HDPE and PP maintain an 8 % recycling rate, constrained by long product lifespans and limited sorting infrastructure. These rigid plastics also face material-specific challenges that make them harder to recycle at scale.
Packaging as a Key Driver
Packaging continues to play a critical role in boosting polyolefin recycling. Transport packaging, in particular, serves as a significant source of recyclable material for LDPE and LLDPE, which meet about 10 % of demand through recycled inputs. High demand persists for specific recycled grades of HDPE and PP used in packaging and automotive sectors.
With regulations mandating minimum recycled content, especially in the EU through the recently adopted EC 40 /2025 (PPWR), demand for rigid plastic recyclate is expected to surge. Advancements in waste collection and sorting technology could further support this growth.
However, flexible polyolefins still face major recycling challenges due to their high cost and technical difficulties. Although some local collection trials are underway, real improvement will require large investments in infrastructure and stronger regulations.
North America’s Mixed Outlook
North America’s current mechanical recycling rate for polyolefins stands at 11 %. HDPE and PP lead at 13 %, while LDPE and LLDPE trail at 8 %. By mid-century, these figures are anticipated to reach 19 % and 11 %, respectively. Nevertheless, industrial uses dominate polyolefin applications in the region, complicating post-use recovery.
PET recycling is more successful, with mechanically recycled PET taking up 20 % of total consumption. This includes 17 % for PET resin and film, and 24 % for polyester fibres. These figures are expected to climb substantially by 2050, fueled by packaging demand and imports from South America and the Asia-Pacific.
Northeast Asia Faces Export and Infrastructure Challenges
Northeast Asia lags behind in polyolefin recycling, reaching just 4 % in 2024. Even with expected growth, only a 9 % share is forecast by 2050. The region’s focus on exporting plastic goods limits access to domestic waste streams. Additionally, the lack of strong policy mandates and the surplus of virgin polymer production limit investments in recycling.
In contrast, polyester polymers hold a more favorable position. Sourced from both consumer and industrial waste, recycled polyester reached an 11 % share in 2024 and is expected to rise to 18 % by 2050. However, limited consumer interest, policy gaps, and strategic uncertainty are seen as key obstacles.
Conclusion
Mechanical recycling is on course for significant expansion, potentially doubling its role in global plastic demand by 2050. Yet this growth is uneven across regions and polymer types, shaped by local policy, industrial infrastructure, and technological readiness. While some plastics, like PET packaging, are advancing quickly, others—especially flexible polyolefins—remain constrained. Regulatory reforms, investments in collection and processing infrastructure, and stronger market demand will be critical to meet the projected 50 million tonnes annually.
You can access the original whitepaper here.
